The trick is not to pick who you want to win, or who you think should win, but who will have the most support. You can't talk about who "the academy" will pick as a whole; you need to focus on who will the individual members support. For example, Crash didn't win best picture because it was the best movie, but because it had the largest support pool (large cast and crew). Lesson: individual academy members vote out of self interest. Here's who will win this year, based upon the inside knowledge of The Most Important Blog In The Universe:
- Best Actor: Sean Penn, because Mickey Rourke has already had his moment in the sun and Penn has always been the snob actor's choice.
- Best Actress: Kate Winslet, because she gets naked in movies.
- Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, because he probably won't have another chance (ouch!).
- Supporting Actress, Penelope Cruz, because she was really good and didn't win for Volver. I was torn between Cruz and Taraji P. Henson, because Henson is the only minority actress nominated and white guilt is a powerful tool.
- Best Director: Danny Boyle, because it's uncool to not be in love with everything Slumdog Millionaire, which I have never seen.
- Best Movie: Slumdog Millionaire. Duh.
3 comments:
Impressive! Hope that you were in a pool...
Wow! Someone's been paying attention in Hollywood class.
Holy, that was good. I was the one asshole in our 10-person pool that picked the woman from Frozen River. I thought it would be like the time Marcia Gay Harden won best supporting actress and we were all like, Who??
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